I think the trend is that only 3 to 4 of the players out of ten are a bust. Probably another 3 get playing time, but nothing outstanding. And 3-4 are All-conference.
It's hard not to get too caught up on the stars, but how many times have we seen a 3* out perform a 5*. Some kids just mature and develop later than 16 y/o (when the stars are first given).
Here's the Top 20 in the state of Texas from 2004, I count 4 out of the top 20 that lived up to expectations. Some others were solid contributors or flamed out for reasons that weren't their fault (ie, Bobby Reid). So instead of 9 out of 10 being a bust, only 8 out of 10 will bust. So if your team gets 10 of these guys in the top 100, try to guess which two of them are going to work out and which 8 are going to bust.
A lot of these kids can't handle NOT being the big man on campus. They can only make big plays if you give them the ball 30 times a game and they'll strike one big. College and pro teams can't dedicate that many touches to one player (though some try). Some guys can't handle the adversity, can't handle the scrutiny or the bright lights. You can't load up your signing class with all 5 stars recruits, it's the 2 and 3 stars that hold the 4's and 5's together.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/big_12/Football_recruiting_Class_of_2004_hits_and_misses.html1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Palestine, Oklahoma: Met all expectations as the nation’s top overall prospect.
2. Rhett Bomar, QB, Grand Prairie, Oklahoma: One of the biggest busts in recent recruiting history.
3. Frank Okam, DT, Richardson, Texas: Leveled off a bit but largely excellent in three starting seasons.
4. William Morrisey, DT, Silsbee, Texas A&M: Serious leg injury ended his career after only two seasons.
5. Andrew Kelson, DB, Houston, Texas: Solid contributor struggled to find a permanent position.
6. Bobby Reid, QB, Galena Park, Oklahoma State: Best known for his indirect involvement in Mike Gundy’s “I’m a man” rant.
7. Chris Smith, DE, Allen, Texas A&M: Made six tackles in two seasons before vanishing.
8. George Walker, WR, Houston, Texas: Caught a grand total of one pass for 22 yards.
9. Marcus Walker, DB, Waco, Oklahoma: Solid, if injury-prone; started 25 of his final 29 games.
10. Lance Leggett, WR, Arlington, Miami: Tantalized often, but rarely capitalized on immense physical gifts.
11. Stephen McGee, QB, Burnet, Texas A&M: Respectable career ended with an injury-plagued fizzle.
12. Cedric Dockery, OL, Garland, Texas: Honorable mention All-Big 12 in his final two seasons.
13. McCollins Umeh, DE, Klein, Arizona: Died during a voluntary workout before his freshman year.
14. Jordan Shipley, WR, Burnet, Texas: Shook off the injury bug to enjoy a breakout “senior” campaign.
15. Ryan Young, OL, Waco, Arkansas: Disappeared after failing to qualify academically.
16. Kirby Freeman, QB, Brownwood, Miami: Just completed an undistinguished career as a backup at Baylor.
17. Bobby Tatum, DB, Fort Worth, Texas: Spent two seasons in Austin before transferring to Abilene Christian.
18. Walter Thomas, DT, Galveston, Oklahoma State: Flunked out at OSU, arrested in junior college, cut after 12 minutes as an NFL free agent.
19. Tremaine Johnson, DE, Galena Park, LSU: A serviceable backup who started only two games in four seasons.
20. Chris Ogbonnaya, WR, Houston, Texas: Eventually discovered his niche as a pass-catching running back.
